It’s going to get really rough

If you think I’m being a bit of a worry-wort here’s the latest Time magazine’s headline on the issue of climate change – Trump’s presidency could mean the end of a livable climate heading an article by Bryan Walsh. As Walsh points out it was incredible timing as the annual U.N. climate summit celebrated the Paris Agreement on November 7^th, only to be followed on the 9^th with the election of Donald Trump who, amongst the leaders of nearly two hundred nations (basically the whole world), will be the only one who doesn’t accept the undeniable truth of climate change.

CBS News ran a piece about the serious threat of climate change and showed a map of the USA with the states that are already, and will much more, suffering the most. They chose to color those states in red and for a moment I thought they were showing the same map that they’d showed in the early hours of Nov 9^th. Heh, folks in those Southern states and some mid-western ones who voted Trump in - I hope you’ll remember and take note when your homes and farms are flooded and the stronger and more frequent hurricanes and tornadoes roar over your homes. Not very bright; and it surely is a sad coincidence (not really) that many of these states also have the worst performing public schools in the nation.

Trump most probably couldn’t tell you what Carbon dioxide is or how it’s formed. And Vice-President elect Pence said the other day that he dislikes all science. Wonderful, don’t expect any antibiotics, which scientific research has labored to produce for you, if you get an infection Mike. But the folks who financed and pushed for a Trump victory – they know damned well what their up to. As Walsh points out in his Time magazine article, CO2 levels have gotten dramatically higher in just the last few years, so that they’re now much higher than they’ve ever been in the last 400,000 years! 

Then there’s an even more disturbing article in the current issue of the New York Review of Books written by two members of the Rockefeller family – David Kaiser and Lee Wasserman. They begin by saying that the Rockefeller Family Fund is in the process of divesting from ExxonMobil Corporation. This is because research by Columbia University School of Journalism has discovered that Exxon scientists have known for decades about the link between burning fossil fuels and climate change, and then after informing the company executives have agreed to come up with - if not downright lies, obfuscations. Kaiser and Wasserman report that currently the Attorney Generals of New York, California and Massachusetts are therefore investigating whether ExxonMobil is guilty of fraud by failing to disclose to its shareholders the business risks involved in major climate change which they are fully aware of. Of course, don’t expect any support from the incoming Attorney General.

And then if all this wasn’t enough in my readings, my latest copy of Scientific American arrived and it has an article on the accelerating thawing of the permafrost mostly in northern Canada and Alaska and northern Russia. The article by Prof. Ted Schuur of Northern Arizona University states that this “Northern Hemisphere’s permafrost zone contains an estimated 1.035 trillion metric tons of carbon in the top three meters of frozen soil, which could escape if the ground thaws, amplifying global warming significantly.”

Happy Thanksgiving folks.  

Thoughts on the size of our universe

A few days ago I read an astounding article put out by Associated Press on the latest findings regarding the size of our universe. Astrophysicists now believe our universe contains two trillion galaxies !  A galaxy is a collection of stars. Our own galaxy contains approximately 200 billion stars! These numbers are virtually impossible to get one’s mind around. Let’s be conservative and assume that our galaxy is above average in size and assign 100 billion stars per galaxy – then we end up with 200 billion, trillion stars! 

Other recent research is finding that many stars have planets going around them like in our solar system. Why for so long many assumed that our solar system was unique I can’t think. Our solar system has eight planets, but again let’s be conservative and say that the average solar system has just two planets, then we come to the figure of 400 billion, trillion planets.

By studying the light coming from other parts of the universe we know that it’s all made up of the same elements. These numbers are so huge it is certain that many other planets will be very similar to ours, with oceans and continents, and similar climate. As we understand the conditions for the carbon-based life that we have – we need a planet not too big, not too small and with a good amount of water, and circling a sun that’s the right size and strength. Let’s be carefully conservative here and say that these conditions may only occur for one in a million planets, we still end up with 400,000 trillion planets. Biochemists are puzzled by how life started on ours – that’s if you don’t involve a God intervention. But life did start up and surprisingly soon after planet Earth began its existence – about 500 million years after its creation, most of that time waiting till things cooled down from a ball of fire. Let’s be conservative once more and say that even if all the conditions were conducive, that some form of self-reproducing material only started up on one in a thousand of these life-possible planets, we still end up with 400 trillion planets in our universe with life on them. Holy cow! – there’s probably another Bryan Hamlin typing up a similar blog somewhere else J 

Having already read the morning paper with it’s Trump/Brexit/Aleppo headlines I’m not so sure about claiming intelligent life on this planet, but seeing as I’m posting this on the internet I’ll call it ‘technically astute’ or a TA sort of life. So what might be the chances of TA life on any of the other 400 trillion planets with life on them?

Even if this were only a one in a million possibility that would leave us with 400 million other places in the universe with ‘clever’ life on them. But even with all our modern technology one basic fact that we’ve learned is that you can’t send a message faster than the speed of light, and these other planets are often thousands or even millions of light-years away. So we send a message saying: ‘Hi, we’re pretty intelligent, are you able to reply and tell us how you’re getting; we’ll have to wait several thousand years for a reply.

So, it’s virtually certain that there is life on other planets, and a good chance that some of that life will have evolved intelligent forms, but little chance of any communication. Frustrating, ‘cos right now we could do with a bit of help.

Heaven and Hell

The moment I learned of who had flown the two jet-liners into the Twin Towers in New York in 2001, I thought – damn!  These Al Qaeda bastards did this believing they would be rewarded with eternity in Heaven, along with 70 virgin girls apparently.  In fact their young lives were snuffed out in an instant and therefore probably painlessly, while thousands of innocent people, including Muslims, died horrifying deaths, followed by the drawn-out painful deaths of many firemen and other first responders as they contracted lung disease etc. from the smoke and debris inhalation.  I went and sat in the woods by a stream and sobbed, not only because of the mass destruction in New York but because I knew that the Bush government would over-react. And so we’ve had the Iraq war killing tens of thousands of people on all sides, leading to the formation of ISIS and much of the chaos in the Middle East today. And now we have their terrorist attacks in Paris, Brussels, San Bernadino, Orlando, and now Istanbul, each time with the perpetrators believing they are about to go to heaven.

As I wrote in my last blog of June     there is evidence to suggest that one reason for the success of Islam and Christianity in earlier centuries was that they more clearly promised a life after death. Unless we’re old and suffering a lot, none of us want to die, and unlike probably most, or maybe all other animals, we know we’re going to, which is the rather large downside to being human and leads to a lot of emotional issues in humans. Other animals, particularly pets that are taken good care of, have a more carefree life.

However, ladies and gents – it’s 2016 and it’s about time we grew up and faced the fact that this is the way it is. This is our one life, and our role in it is to enjoy it while hopefully helping others to enjoy theirs, and trying to spread some happiness around, trying to leave the world a little better than when we came into it. There are quite a few religious believers today who say they accept the truth of evolution, and so they should – ‘cos if one studies the facts one doesn’t have much option. We humans are not so much descended from apes but are apes. Zoologists classify humans along with six other species of ape in the ape family Hominidae. All seven species of us are descended over the last several million years from earlier more monkey-like creatures. So, if there is a life after death, this presumably is some special status granted to just one species - Homo sapiens - by the Creator. I mean you’re not trying to tell me that the beans I ate for supper are also now in heaven, or the chicken. So, this means that at some point over the last six million years the Creator will have had to have said to him/herself; ‘OK, after midnight tonight all babies born to these apey-humans are going to have a soul which will continue to exist after its body dies. So some years later you die, go to heaven, look around and ask ‘Where are my parents?’ ‘Oh’, says God, ‘Your Dad’s over there somewhere, but your Mum didn’t make it ‘cos she was born the day before the deadline,’ - excuse the pun.

Yep, it’s ridiculous, and in 2016 it’s time we grew up and started valuing the one life we have, and use it to try and make life more worth living for others, particularly those in desperate circumstances – the homeless and hungry in America, the millions of refugees, and the far-too-many ill and starving in Africa and other parts. There’s work to do.  

I’m not worried about going to hell, but I wouldn’t want to go to heaven either – what, for ETERNITY ? !  That’s a hell of a long time. I love wandering in beautiful nature admiring the pretty flowers and the inspiring view with someone I love; and reading books; but for EVER? A trillion years? It’s of course silly. Over and out.

Tribalism

My team, my group, my people are great; but you lot are a bunch of losers. Whether it’s sports teams, states, nations, ethnic groups or religions – one’s own are good, and the other lot are not so good, or worse. It’s ridiculously, obviously stupid to take these positions – but many of us so quickly and easily do. Why? In a word – tribalism. Sebastion Junger makes this point in his new book Tribe: On Homecoming and Belonging. In an interview in Time magazine dated June 27, 2016, Junger explains that our sense of connectedness, or identity with, our group is deeply ingrained in us because for most of the last 200,000 years (approximately 10,000 generations) our forebears lived in small hunter-gatherer tribal groups where survival of one’s own tribe was paramount, and often involved being against some other nearby different tribe. Over this long period of time certain aspects of tribalism have become strongly ingrained.

At one point early on the total human population may not have been more than a few thousand. This explains the extraordinary genetic similarity between all humans today.  Which makes this whole tribalism, and feelings of racism, so particularly ironic. But, food was scarce, we lived on the move in small groups, and when one group encountered another there would be both fear and animosity over the scarce hunting provisions, leading often to violent clashes.

As the human population grew and spread, first across Africa and then into other continents, the number of tribes grew greatly. Amongst the many tribes there would be different languages developing; and, as they sat around the camp-fire at night looking in wonderment at the night sky, and fearful of death which was all too present in their short and dangerous lives, religious philosophies also developed.  A more sedentary lifestyle did not emerge until about 8,000 years ago. By then, and in several parts of the world until more recent times, there would have been thousands of tribes, some related through recent descent and bifurcation, but involving literally thousands of different languages, customs and religions. Then over the centuries, either through mergers or more often because of conquerings, the number of different languages and religions have declined. But even today Wikipedia reports 6,900 languages still in existence, and 4,200 religions.

I’m British and was brought up speaking English. My mitochondrial DNA shows that on my mother’s side I am descended from people who have been in the British Isles for as much as 30,000 years!  For much of that time these people would have been hunter-gatherers and at some point speaking various dialects of the Celtic language group. Wonderfully, Irish Gaelic and Welsh and to some extent Scots Gaelic are three Celtic languages still very much in use. When I was young there were still a few older people in Cornwall at the south-west tip of England who spoke Cornish, another Celtic language; but sadly the language has died. There were also rumors of ancient religious ceremonies being carried out rather secretly in Cornwall. I expect that has died out as well.

In Julius Caesar’s diary – I had to read it in the original Latin in school – he writes with disgust of the  naked savages, painted blue, arraigned against his soldiers. Caesar didn’t stay long – we kicked his butt – but nearly a century later the Romans came back and ruled England from 43 – 410 AD. Some of the Celtic tribes cooperated but many didn’t. Recent DNA studies have found evidence of surprisingly little intersex between the Roman occupiers and the Brits. Coming back to tribalism, this is probably explained by a mixture of tribal British hatred of the occupiers, and racial superior thinking by the Italian occupiers.

Towards the end of the Roman rule of England, the Roman Empire suddenly became Christian. The Romans had brutally persecuted the small Christian minority for more than two hundred years when suddenly in 313 AD the Emperor Constantine, who one biographer claims murdered some of his own family to become emperor, declared through the Edict of Milan that Christianity was suddenly the religion of the empire. In his fascinating book Yesterday’s Plague, Tomorrow’s Pandemic? A history of disease throughout the ages, R. Kinsey Dart points out that Rome was hit by a horrifying epidemic during this period, killing many thousands. Dart posits the idea that faced with early and imminent death a religion that promised life after death became very attractive. It surely isn’t a coincidence that the two most popular religions now in the 21^st century – Christianity and Islam - both more clearly than other religions promise life after death – as long as certain conditions are met of course.  

Meanwhile back in England, soon after the Romans left then Saxons and Angles, from what is now mostly Germany, started to come over the North Sea into eastern England. Recent research shows that they came in substantial numbers with their own polytheistic religion, and of course their own language. This might explain why so few Celtic words have survived in the English Anglo-Saxon language of today. One that I’m aware of is ‘combe’ meaning valley, as in the Devonshire town of Ilfracombe, and in a few other place names in Western England. Cymru – pronounced ‘cumri’ (please – my Welsh relatives, forgive any mistakes!) is Wales in Welsh, meaning in effect ‘Land of Valleys’.  As for Christianity, it was re-introduced with the arrival from Rome of Augustine of Canterbury as he became known after establishing a bridgehead in Kent in 596 AD.

One British historian stated that ‘they speak English in America because of a woman with six fingers’!  The woman referred to was Anne Boleyn who Henry VIII took a shine to and so divorced his Catholic wife in order to marry Anne. This grievous sin got him excommunicated by the Pope, and so Henry not only went Protestant but built a big navy to defend England from Catholic European attack. Henry was eventually followed by his and Anne Boleyn’s daughter – Queen Elizabeth I who encouraged her naval explorers Raleigh and Drake to go West, and the rest is history.

Britain used its developing naval power to both expand her empire and along with it her religion of Protestant Christianity. They treated the peoples they conquered, ruled and in some cases converted to their religion, pretty poorly in my view. Much of the British Empire was still in existence when I was in school, and we were all so proud that ‘the sun never set on the British Empire’ (because it straddled so many time zones). European Christians arriving in North America deliberately spread disease in order to kill off the ‘natives who were in the way’. Now, as a Brit, I’m ashamed of my country’s behavior in the 18^th, 19^th and early 20^th century in Africa, Asia and the Caribbean. Our tribalism made us feel racially, and religiously, superior.  I’m sorry.

Now in the 21^st century most of us have improved. There’s more acceptance of people who look or sound different from us, or who have a different religious outlook. There are more marriages across national, racial and religious differences. BUT, we’re also now seeing backlashes. On June 23^rd Britain is holding a referendum to decide whether to stay in the European Union, as many Brits don’t want to have to abide by rules set by a bunch of foreigners. Please Britain – stay with our European colleagues. And here in America one of the candidates for President wants to build a wall between the USA and Mexico, and also keep out all Muslims while keeping a special eye on the several million Muslim Americans. Violence is on the increase, especially in America where it’s easier to buy a machine gun than it is buy some weed-killer chemicals. Much of it takes place in large cities where millions live cheek by jowl with folk who look different, sound different, and behave different. But we’re all humans folks.

Remember that little group of hunter-gatherers gathered around the fire enjoying a nice meal of roast meat brought home by the hunters? They were all closely related, knew each other well, and for the most part enjoyed each other’s company; all the while however keeping an ear out in case some other group crept up on them. Well, we’re still run by some of those same ingrained thoughts and fears. I won’t go so far as to say they’re in our DNA, but all sorts of thinkings, not all of which are that easy to dismiss, are quick to surface when the guy who crosses your path in an unfortunate way, just happens to look or sound different, or dress different, or believe different things. It’s going to take a while for us to grow and adapt; and meanwhile we’re going to need to try a little harder on these points because the next years, wherever we are in the world, are not going to be easy. So I’ll end by asking my friends and family to help me be a little better in this respect. We can and will evolve into something better, and love our neighbor whoever she might be. He was Jewish, and he nailed it when two thousand years ago he said simply ‘love your enemy’. I’m going to keep trying.

The Bomb

As I wrote in my last blog New Belongings posted on April 1st, I recently joined the Union of Concerned Scientists. In previous decades this Cambridge, MA based group had been in the forefront of the campaign in America to abolish nuclear weapons, but I joined the organization recently because it has also taken up the cause of climate change. But little did I know the strange coincidence of events that would have me pondering this issue of nuclear weapons again, more than since my student days.

Back then in the late fifties and early sixties we had the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) in Britain founded and led by Canon John Collins (1905 – 1982) an Anglican clergyman, who in the late seventies I would have the privilege of meeting at a reception in Cambridge, MA.

Then in October 1962 we had the Cuban Missile crisis. By then I was a graduate student at Glasgow University and took part in a truly historic debate that began at noon on the most crucial day of the crisis – October 26^th when many thought this might well lead to a nuclear war. Our debate went on for eleven hours!  That week was a nail-biting time with many of us wondering if this was it. I can still see Menzies Campbell, later to be leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, holding forth for nuclear disarmament; and Donald Dewar, later to be First Minister of Scotland, but then as chairman of the debate, using his authority to order a pause at 9 pm so that we could listen to the news on a radio because the situation was so intense. The following morning Kruschev backed down and the Soviet ships carrying missiles to Cuba turned around.

Since then things on this matter seemed to improve. Reagan met Gorbachev in Reykjavik in 1986 leading to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty of 1987. Many of us then assumed that neither the Russians nor the Americans were crazy enough to want their own countries destroyed. This policy is known as ‘mutual assured destruction’ or MAD, yes, quite. Well, it’s worked up till now.

All this has been brought into focus for me in recent days however due to a series of strange personal coincidences. On April 10th I watched the CBS program 60 Minutes. One of the items was about the final 28 pages of the 9/11 Report that have never been released and considered top secret. At question, and it is thought that these 28 pages might throw some light on it, is how did a bunch of young Arab men who spoke little English manage to come into America and in very short time take flying lessons, and then as we all know fly American airliners into the Twin Towers in New York and into the Pentagon.  According to the 60 Minutes report part of what these 28 pages have covered up all these years is that some of the terrorists received help from at least one person in the Saudi Arabian consulate in Los Angeles - their point of entry.

As I heard these lines on 60 Minutes I was reminded of some words of that big-mouthed Republican front-runner in a recent interview. When he becomes President he said he would stop financing the defense budgets of countries like Saudi Arabia and South Korea and simply give them all some nuclear weapons !  I know - he’s nuts, but he is still the Republican front runner .

Then if all this wasn’t enough, the next day I started into a new book that I’d bought at a sale recently without taking full note of its content but taken by its title: The Fate of the Earth. The author is Jonathan Schell (1943 – 2014) and was written in 1982, winning the LA Times Book Prize. As I started in I soon realized it was about nuclear weapons, how they work, their destructive power, and the likelihood of their being used, and strongly advocating for nuclear disarmament. Then that same evening - April 11^th I turn on the news and there’s John Kerry our Secretary of State making the first visit by such a senior American government official to Hiroshima, and clearly shaken by what he saw in the city and its museum to the nuclear blast that killed 140,000 people on August 6th, 1945. The report pointed out that there are now thousands of nuclear weapons in the world.

Schell’s 1982 book describes in graphic detail the incredibly powerful affects, based on what happened at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the many tests of much larger bombs, including the more devastating hydrogen bomb, that nuclear weapons have - blasting power, mind boggling heat, and then the continuing spread of deadly radioactive substances. It is not a pleasant read.

Hiroshima after a very small atomic bomb

A modest one on down-town Boston would destroy everything inside route 128, our ring road; a not very big one would flatten the whole of Manhattan. Schell goes on giving mind-shattering details like these. Basically, he concludes that both Russia and America have enough nuclear weapons and sophisticated delivery systems to destroy ALL the cities and large towns in each other’s country. Weather patterns would then distribute the radiation to the rest of the world.

But, what struck me about this 1982 book is that there is no mention of the possibility of some terrorists getting hold of one or two such weapons.  Could ISIS get hold of one? One thinks of Russia with its corrupt government, and the former Soviet states one or two of which are struggling with their economies and chaotic governments; we hope we’ve stopped – for the present – Iran from building the bomb; and then there’s the nut-case in North Korea. And we trust that all the thousands of nuclear weapons in America are in safe, sane hands.

The homemade bombs in Paris and Brussels did horrific damage, literally blowing some people to pieces. A major atomic bomb blast would be a BILLION times greater!  All it needs is just one in the hands of a suicide bomber who isn’t at all worried about ‘mutual assured deterrence’; in fact is looking forward to instant passage to heaven. I just hope and trust that all governments in possession of nuclear weapons are taking sufficient precautions.

But quite simply, humanity cannot continue to live on into the future indefinitely without an effort to rid ourselves of these monsters worldwide.   

OK I’ve said enough.  But yes, there are times when I’m shit worried. And now I’m going to read a book about the gorgeous wonders of nature.